Price responses of grain market under climate change in pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX modelling

In academia, there are few studies adopted ARX modelling on historical datasets. Recently, the studies on notable effects of climatic changes upon past agrarian economy are paid by more attention. Here, this study first time seriously explores the relationship between climatic change and the grain market at a macro-scale in pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX modelling. The results show that a cold phase would raise grain price through lowering the supply in the grain market. Furthermore, according to the simulations on short-and long-term climate change, the long lasting climate change could be more disastrous to society than short-term change. Last, the application in the study proves ARX modelling is also a feasible choice in the field of historical research.