Detecting Discontinuities in Large Scale Systems

Cloud providers and data centers rely heavily on forecasts to accurately predict future workload. This information helps them in appropriate virtualization and cost-effective provisioning of the infrastructure. The accuracy of a forecast greatly depends upon the merit of performance data fed to the underlying algorithms. One of the fundamental problems faced by analysts in preparing data for use in forecasting is the timely identification of data discontinuities. A discontinuity is an abrupt change in a time-series pattern of a performance counter that persists but does not recur. Analysts need to identify discontinuities in performance data so that they can a) remove the discontinuities from the data before building a forecast model and b) retrain an existing forecast model on the performance data from the point in time where a discontinuity occurred. There exist several approaches and tools to help analysts identify anomalies in performance data. However, there exists no automated approach to assist data center operators in detecting discontinuities in the first place. In this paper, we present and evaluate our proposed approach to help data center analysts and cloud providers automatically detect discontinuities. A case study on the performance data obtained from a large cloud provider and performance tests conducted using an open source benchmark system show that our proposed approach provides on average precision of 84% and recall 88%. The approach doesn't require any domain knowledge to operate.