Modeling of rice productivity in India

Rice is one of the major crops feeding the world population and is one of the most substantial ingredients in the food security chain. Therefore, a reliable forecast of rice production would have a predominant impact on assessing the world food security. In this manuscript we have employed grey model to predict the rice productivity and consumption of India. The time series data are used to construct and develop this model. Many research work has been reported to estimate the rice productivity, but the proposed methods are found to be complicated and requires different types of data. In the present paper we have developed a mathematical model which can forecast the rice productivity from a set of time series data. We have used the rice productivity data from the year 1952 to 2013 and the consumption data from the year 1960 to 2013 of India. Grey Model is used to set up prediction model of rice productivity for the years of 2014 to 2017. The results clearly indicate that the grey model is good for the prediction of rice productivity.