Wind power uncertainty modeling considering spatial dependence based on Pair-copula theory

Wind power uncertainty modeling forms the foundation of stochastic optimization problems in wind power integration. Due to the similarity of meteorological conditions, outputs of adjacent wind farms have a natural consistency, as well as the forecast errors. Therefore, spatial dependence is imperative for joint wind power uncertainty model, especially for power flow optimizations and transmission risk assessments. The Pair-copula theory is introduced in this paper to construct the spatial relevance for multiple wind farms. The detailed modeling procedure, including model selection, parameter fitting, goodness-of-fit testing and random scenario generation, are explicitly presented. Simulation results show that Pair-copula is flexible in high dimension correlation analyses and can effectively improve the model accuracy.