Secondary payloads in 2014: Assessing the numbers

In previous conferences, we have provided a brief history of secondary payloads (i.e., space missions that ride “piggyback” on the same rocket as a primary payload), with an emphasis on the census data (mass, lifetime, contributing organizations). In those conferences, we have identified a significant shift in the secondary payload market towards CubeSat-class missions; that shift has become an avalanche with more than 100 spacecraft launched in 2013. And although we have presented this topic several times at this conference, we believe that two reasons warrant an update: first, so many secondaries are launching in 2013 that the conclusions of 2012 must be re-examined and, second, we have updated our own database with a more thorough evaluation of mission success. Therefore, in this paper, we will address these questions: 1) Can the launch/operations/regulatory infrastructure keep up with this avalanche of CubeSats? (Answer: yes, for now, but we fear we are one mishap away from regulatory shutdown.) 2) Are there new trends emerging in terms of the organizations and missions participating in CubeSats? (Answer: NASA, the DoD and universities are all greatly increasing participation. And we think this will all change again in 2014.) 3) Is there a response/change in the rest of the secondary payload market? Are those missions continuing in the same numbers? Are there changes in the kinds of missions pursued among the "larger" secondaries? (Answer: we still don't know. The market is very fluid).