Analysis of low carbon society in Thai transport sector — The AIM/Enduse modeling annroach

Thailand's road transportation sector has been modeled using AIM/Enduse, for the BAU case and LCS, Emission Tax (ET) and Emission Reduction Target (ERT) scenarios. The counter-measures modeled are modal shift, travel demand management (TDM), advanced technologies such as hybrid vehicles and fuel switching to biofuels. Results of analyses show that the LCS scenario has the highest mitigation, with a cumulative mitigation of 28% from the BAU scenario. Whilst ET and ERT scenarios show considerable mitigation, they do not lead to a change in the sustainability of the transport system in Thailand. The LCS scenario achieves this mitigation through a change in the way the population meets the travel demand, where as in the ET and ERT scenarios, most of the mitigation is through fuel switching and TDM. In the LCS scenario, in 2050 the majority of the passenger transport is provided for by public transport modes, unlike in the ET and ERT scenarios.