Impact of ocean observations on hurricane forecasts in the Mid-Atlantic: Forecasting lessons learned from Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Irene followed a track that curved northward over the Bahamas and ran directly over the U.S. east coast from Cape Hatteras to New England in August of 2011, causing severe storm surges, intense inland flooding, loss of life and over $8 billon in storm damage. While the ensemble of atmospheric forecast models accurately predicted the hurricane timing and track, the hurricane intensity was consistently over-predicted. Data from the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) were used to better understand the potential impact of the Mid-Atlantic Bight's coastal ocean on the Hurricane Irene intensity forecast.