Time and technology: Looking ahead in electronics

Betting men will always profit by wagering against the realization of technology forecasts — at least in the detail, including specific time frames, that is frequently attached to such forecasts. Perhaps the most that can be gained from long-term technology forecasting is a more accurate gage of developments in the short term. Yet even that may be worth the effort. Critics who deride forecasting as a futile exercise that cannot yield accurate results overlook its value in helping define critical prerequisite developments and in establishing probable technology trees. At the very least, forecasting helps focus the ideas of our “best guessers.”