A Nonparametric Trend Model for Henan's GDP

In order to quantitatively understand the trend of Henan's GDP in the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, a nonparametric regression model is established based on polynomial spline method in this paper. The fitting average absolute relative error is 8.38%. Comparative analysis illustrates that the proposed model has strong predictive ability. Prediction results show that the average annual growth rate is about 11.07% during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Henan's ecomony will still keep steady and rapid development.