Study on waterway freight volume forecast based on grey Markov

Waterway freight volume is not only an important indicator to determine the demand for waterway logistics, but also a major basis on which organization concerned determine the scale of the inland waterway infrastructure construction and make corresponding policies. The rationality and reliability of cargo forecast results will directly affect the investment income of logistics infrastructure and the development of related logistics enterprises. Meanwhile, it has great significant implications for the distribution of regional resources in a reasonable way and the formulation of logistics development strategy. After describing the grey GM (1,1) model and the basic principles of the Markov chain briefly, this article proposes a method of waterway freight volume forecast based on grey Marko model. The method combines the advantages of gray in the short-term forecasts and the Markov model to deal with advantage of the randomness and volatility data. At last, this paper take Hubei Province as an example for demonstration, results show that the grey Markov model is better than the grey.