Socio-technical framework of hazard identification in trajectory-based operations

Major changes are coming to air traffic management (ATM) affecting operational concepts, airspace design, procedures, automation, and operational personnel. While there will be a number of interim steps in the process, the high level concept focus is on trajectory-based operations (TBO), which features Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) plans. Safety enhancements are some of the most important goals of planned improvements and it needs to be proven that TBO is safe at or above an acceptable level, a process known as safety case. Hazard identification is a primary emphasis of the safety case. In this paper we first outline hazard identification in the context of system safety, along with a need to identify hazards from technical, human, and organizational factors. We then review the existing hazard identification tools, processes, and relevant models, and identify the gaps in hazard identification. Following that, a socio-technical framework of hazard identification is proposed with an attempt to integrate technical, human, and organizational factors. Using that framework, some generic hazards based on published TBO concepts are identified. Finally, we suggest that some future work be performed including the application of the framework to TBO scenarios, and evaluation of the framework in terms of diagnosticity, validity, reliability, and usability.