Risk-Based Dynamic Security Assessment

This paper presents a linearized technique to determine a risk-based index for dynamic security. The method is an extension to an existing technique in which the risk of steady state security is calculated using the mean and variance of load uncertainty. The proposed method is applied to calculate the risk indices for the IEEE New England 39-bus test system. The results obtained from the proposed method are validated against those estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Both approaches produce virtually the same results for small load deviations.