Scrutinizing Gartner's hype cycle approach

This paper scrutinizes the validity of the Gartner's hype cycle approach by means of in-depths theoretical discussion and empirical analysis. After presenting Gartner's model and its strong immanent influence on large companies' technology strategy and investment decisions, we conduct an in-depth analysis of its two underlying theories, the expectation hype and the technology s-curves. In the next stage, we analyze a longitudinal combination of actual hype cycle reports for the energy and utility sector 2003-2009. Additionally we observe the 46 inherent technologies and their methodological treatment more closely. In a last step, the hype cycles results for three example technologies: tidal power, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and photovoltaic generation have been tested empirically in terms of visibility (news article count) and user interest (search requests). Based on comparing the empirical results with the current methodological set up and the analysis procedure of Gartner's hype cycle model, we must strongly criticize the existing approach. We suggest to improve the hype cycle methodology by introducing an underlying mathematical model relation that would enable Gartner to quantitatively operationalized their analyses. Theoretical and empirically devised observations, propositions and aims for future research are elaborated throughout the paper and summarized in the last section.