The trajectory of technological development and interdependence in China's biofuel industry

Successful innovation depends upon complementary innovations and stimulation of investment in related fields; accumulated capacity in various related technologies comprises critical innovation infrastructure for an emerging industry, as well as for a nation that intends to reinforce its overall innovative capacity. As a technology latecomer aiming at reducing its energy dependence on fossil fuel as well as its carbon emissions, China is the third largest bioethanol producer in the world and number one in Asia. The success of biofuel manufacturing is restricted by limits on availability of primary raw materials, by the maturity of fermentation and biorefinery technologies, and by new knowledge about the limitations of food crop-based biofuels and the overall energy budget and indirect emissions of biofuels. This paper examines China's emerging biofuel industry, exploring two questions: How have biofuel-related technologies evolved and interacted with other fields? Does technological interdependence in the biofuel industry reciprocally reinforce China's innovation capability in related fields? The results of these explorations lead to educated guesses about China's alternative energy strategy.