A sequential simulation technique for adequacy evaluation of generating systems including wind energy

A wind energy conversion system (WECS) has a different impact on the reliability performance of a generating system than does a conventional energy conversion system. This is due to the variation of wind speeds and the dependencies associated with the power output of each wind turbine generator (WTG) in a wind farm. In this paper, a sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique is proposed for adequacy evaluation of a generating system including WECS. The method is based on an hourly random simulation to mimic the operation of a generating system, taking into account the auto-correlation and fluctuating characteristics of wind speeds, the random failure of generating units and other recognized dependencies. The hourly wind speeds are simulated utilizing autoregressive and moving average time series models that are established based on the F-criterion. A small reliability test system designated as the RBTS is used to illustrate the proposed method.