Wave energy signal features and prediction research of the continuing heavy rain process in Sichuan Basin

The wave packet perturbation energy propagation and accumulation signal during continuing heavy rain process in west of Sichuan Basin from September 22, 2008 to September 27, 2008 is analyzed and predicted in wave-packet propagation diagnosis method by making use of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis materials. According to the analysis, the distribution and propagation of wave packet can obviously reflect features of generation, lasting and ending of the rain. The high value area of the wave packet is basically consistent with heavy rain areas. The heavy rain process is generally generated in high value period or high phase of the wave packet perturbation energy accumulation. According to the meridional and zonal propagation features of the wave packet value, the continuing heavy rain process in west of Sichuan Basin from September 22, 2008 to September 27, 2008 was mainly affected by West Pacific subtropical high, cold air in northern regions and plateau regions, two water vapor channels from Bay of Bengal and South Sea to the basin as well as Typhoon Hagupit. The evolution of wave packet is meaningful for prediction.