Prediction of earthquake in Yunnan region based on the AHC over sampling

The data of earthquake of magnitude 3.5 or greater that happened during the 1970 and 2008 in Yunnan region (22 degrees and 28 degrees north, 98 degrees and 104 degrees east) were compiled and analyzed in this paper. After calculating the seismicity indicators and constructing the initial data set, AHC over sampling method was used on the imbalanced data. Then small earthquakes and large ones during the 1999 and 2008 were predicted and verified with the support vector machines (SVM) which contains different error cost. The result performs well, and it provides a new way for the earthquake prediction.