Determining provenance in phishing websites using automated conceptual analysis

Phishing is a form of online fraud with drastic consequences for the victims and institutions being defrauded. A phishing attack tries to create a believable environment for the intended victim to enter their confidential data such that the attacker can use or sell this information later. In order to apprehend phishers, law enforcement agencies need automated systems capable of tracking the size and scope of phishing attacks, in order to more wisely use their resources shutting down the major players, rather then wasting resources stopping smaller operations. In order to develop these systems, phishing attacks need to be clustered by provenance in a way that adequately profiles these evolving attackers. The research presented in this paper looks at the viability of using automated conceptual analysis through cluster analysis techniques on phishing websites, with the aim of determining provenance of these phishing attacks. Conceptual analysis is performed on the source code of the websites, rather than the final text that is displayed to the user, eliminating problems with rendering obfuscation and increasing the distinctiveness brought about by differences in coding styles of the phishers. By using cluster analysis algorithms, distinguishing factors between groups of phishing websites can be obtained. The results indicate that it is difficult to separate websites by provenance without also separating by intent, by looking at the phishing websites alone. Instead, the methods discussed in this paper should form part of a larger system that uses more information about the phishing attacks.