Operating reserve adequacy evaluation using uncertainties of wind power forecast

The integration of large shares of wind generation in power systems requires the development of new algorithms and forecasting tools for making decisions in the operational domain taking into account wind generation forecast uncertainties. One of these decisions regards operating reserve requirements to meet load and wind variations. The aim of this paper is therefore to address this issue from a risk evaluation perspective, showing that it is possible to describe the consequences of each possible reserve level through a set of risk indices useful for decision-making. The new reserve management tool described in this paper is intended to support the transmission system operator (TSO) in defining on-line the operating reserve needs for the daily and intraday markets. Decision strategies like setting an acceptable risk level or finding a compromise between economic issues and the risk of loss of load are explored. A case-study based on the Portuguese power system demonstrates the usefulness and efficiency of the tool.