A Possibility-Probability Based Model for Distribution System Reliability

A conceptual possibility-probability based framework is proposed to manage the uncertainties encountered in distribution system reliability. Probability distribution of reliability parameters, the failure rate, the load point outage duration and the power injection of feeder branch are transformed consistently into the corresponding possibilistic distribution function. Under the proposed framework, a compromise between transformation consistency and human updating experience about probability reliability parameter can be satisfied. The derived possibility distribution functions are achieved for both of mean intervals and reasonable spread intervals. Three fuzzy indices, the energy not supplied (ENS) index, the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) and the system average interruption duration index (SAIDI), are conducted for assessing the reliability of a distribution system. A radial distribution network with 43 branches is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy-probabilistic model.