Modeling Student Interest in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics

This paper presents preliminary results of a Raytheon project that uses systems engineering techniques to understand the intricacies of the U.S. educational system and to assist in the evaluation of proposed system changes with a goal of doubling the numbers of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) college graduates by 2015. Specifically, a system dynamics model has been developed, the initial version of which targets increasing the number of students both capable and interested in pursuing careers in STEM disciplines. To examine student interest and capabilities in STEM, the flow of students through the education system and the workforce are modeled. Separate flows delineate students that are interested and uninterested in STEM. Of those interested, the model further separates the students into those interested in teaching STEM, and those who are interested in STEM careers in industry. A few scenarios have been analyzed that examine changes for improving student capabilities. These scenarios investigate how teacher competency affects student interest and capability in STEM. Variations in teachers' capabilities caused by changes in teacher salary, class size, and tenure and retention policies are examined. The structure of the model allows it to be easily adapted to test new scenarios. For example, it is possible to separate out the career paths of specific groups, such as engineers, rather than looking at all STEM disciplines at once. Initial results provide insight into the value and viability of a few proposed changes and indicate that with continued research, model development, and analysis it will be possible to further assess proposed improvements in the U.S education system. Once effective improvements are identified, a roadmap can be created to provide policy makers with direction for future action. The ultimate goal of this project is to make the model available as an open source for use by a broad community of researchers. While much remains to be done, the systems engineering techniques and system dynamics model presented here provide a starting point for understanding the U.S. education system.