Utilizing UML and system dynamics to optimize the Eco-environmental Impacts evaluation and prediction models

Generally, the Eco-environmental Impacts (EI) systems of large-scale projects, such as the cascade hydropower projects, are complex systems with the characteristics of non-linear and dynamics. However, through integrating information technologies with complex system concepts, the system modeling and operating of complex system could become quantitative and easy to be computerized. This paper adopts UML and System Dynamics (SD) as system modeling methods to evaluate and predict the EI of hydroelectric immigration. Specific results include the UML static and dynamic models for retrospective EI evaluation and the SD causal-loop and flow models for EI prediction. The results show: on one side, the retrospective EI evaluation based on UML can generate quantitative and maintainable models with flexible structure; on the other side, the EI prediction process via SD can depict the dynamic and non-linear characteristics of EI system with relatively simple mathematical functions, so that the computerized simulation driven by specific immigration policies could be accomplished. Moreover, both UML models and SD models of complex system can be further computerized so as to promote the automatic operating of EI evaluation and prediction obviously.