Agent-based modelling application possibilities for Croatian electricity market simulation

Croatia is today in the first phase of restructuring and opening its electricity market. At this moment, electricity market is open to eligible customers only. Eligible customers are able to choose their supplier and currently these are all non-households. Starting from July 1st, 2008 all customers, including households, will become eligible and the market will hence be fully open. Therefore, a suitable method for Croatian market simulation is needed. This paper presents possibilities of using an agent-based model to simulate the Croatian electricity market. Agent-based models represent each market participant as an independent software agent. Each agent has its own strategy and decision-making process. Agents are able to learn and adapt to their environment. EMCAS (electricity market complex adaptive system) is a computer simulation program for agent-based simulation. This paper presents an EMCAS case representing mutual influences of market participants in the emerging Croatian market. Simulations and future developments are presented.