Model-based long-term electricity generation system planning under uncertainty

Within this paper a stochastic linear mixed-integer model for power plant investment planning under uncertainty is presented. Technical constraints relating to thermal power plants are implemented to better determine their operational flexibility. Modeled with a scenario recombining tree, uncertain wind power generation is explicitly considered in the unit commitment planning. In order to investigate the enhanced impact of heat supply on the electricity market due to increasing capacity of combined heat and power units, district heating systems are incorporated. Modeling results for the German electricity market are discussed regarding the significant influence of uncertainty on investment decisions.