Some patterns of technological change in high-performance computers

The author describes the patterns of the unusually rapid change that high-performance computer technology is undergoing. He identifies the stages in which technological changes occur and then defines 'change' as the first derivative of an information function that describes the state of a technology. He explores the driving forces that cause three generic patterns of technological change: incremental, exponential, and logistic. Some areas in high-performance computer technology that are following these patterns are identified, and a forecast is developed. Some limits of high-performance computing are discussed.<
>