Quality assessment of the fire hazard forecast based on a fire potential index for the Mediterranean area by using a MSG/SEVIRI based fire detection system

This paper is devoted to describe the activity carried out by CRPSM (Centro di Ricerca Progetto San Marco) in the framework of the SIGRI (Italian acronym for Integrated System for Fire Risks Management) project. This project aims to develop a system, based on satellite data, able to support operationally the activities of users like Italian Civil Protection Agencies or Fire Dept. involved in fighting wild fires. In particular, the system should be able to support all the phases in which a fire fighting activity can be distinguished, namely: Territory management and resources dislocation (fire risk indices), Fires detection and monitoring, Damage assessment (burned areas and emissions in atmosphere). This paper presents the results obtained in the process of assessing the quality of a fire hazard forecast based on a Fire Potential Index especially designed for the Mediterranean areas. This quality assessment is carried out comparing the daily computed indices with the fire distribution obtained by using a fire detection algorithm based on SEVIRI/MSG images. In fact, using a fire detection algorithm (SFIDE, System for Fires Detection), recently proposed by the authors, a despite of its low spatial resolution, the SEVIRI system is able to reveal, at latitudes corresponding to Italy, fires covering an area of the order of 0.1 ha. The Fire Potential Index (FPI) is one of the most suitable to be computed by using satellite data even if ancillary information are still needed. The computation of this index requires: the estimate of the Relative Greenness, the evaluation of the leaves humidity, the preparation of vegetation fuel maps. Among the parameters needed to compile this index the fuel type map is particularly crucial. In fact, accurate maps of this kind are not available for the Italian territory. Then, first of all, using Corine Land Cover and other available vegetation maps, medium resolution satellite images and “in situ” observations CRPSM carried out the development of these maps for a couple of Italian regions where the summer wild fires problem has higher incidence.