The fleet readiness analysis tool performance based navigation operational forecast

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) developed the Roadmap for Performance Based Navigation (Roadmap) in 2003. This document outlined the goals associated with the development of performance based navigation (PBN) policies and procedures. In order to support successful implementation of PBN procedures, additional information regarding aircraft navigation capability levels was required. The FAA first tasked MITRE's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) with developing an inventory of equipage to enhance knowledge of PBN capability levels for operations at US airports. Navigational equipment suffixes, filed as part of an instrument flight plan, are useful in identifying Area Navigation (RNAV) capable aircraft. However, these suffixes lack the specificity to characterize Required Navigation Performance (RNP) and RNP Special Aircraft and Aircrew Authorization Required (SAAAR) categories. To further the understanding of aircraft fleet capability, the Fleet Readiness Analysis Tool (FRAT) was developed. It combines data from the inventory as well as equipment filing suffixes and other data sources to create an operations-centric probabilistic view of current PBN capability levels. FRAT has been used to support site identification and prioritization for PBN procedural implementation. In July 2006, an update to the Roadmap was developed and published. In this update the FAA outlines specific goals and milestones for PBN. It defines three time periods of interest: near term (2006-2010), mid term (2011-2015), and far term (2016-2025). Each of these time periods has associated goals and milestones for PBN policy and procedural development. To support the goals in the Roadmap, a future forecast model was developed as part of FRAT to project PBN capability rates into the future. This paper defines and documents PBN capability categories. It provides the current status of the PBN capabilities at the Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP) airports. This paper also documents the future forecast methodology of FRAT and presents the analysis results of the FRAT PBN operational forecast.