Computational Intelligence and Judgement-Based Decisions

People had trouble crunching numbers, so they invented computers technology that uses binary logic and strings of zeros and ones to calculate. On the other hand, people were, and still are, fairly good at adding up opinions, warnings, and probabilities in their heads, then "going with the gut". They survive by using soft information to compare the present to the past, then drawing conclusions about possible future consequences. And, they do this without the help of computers. Even though these mental extrapolations are essential to survival, they are not without risk. Many things render judgement calls inconsistent, arbitrary, or even wrong - lack of experience, moods, the time of day, and cognitive biases. Currently, computers lack the algorithms that would allow them to help reduce these risks. In this presentation, the patented Daams-Stewart algorithm is introduced. Using a new fuzzy implication operator, it captures the cognitive process of extrapolating from experience, and, at the same time, reduces the errors in judgement that creep into human reasoning. The result is computationally intelligent technology that uses soft-computing methods to reduce the risks inherent in the intuitive extrapolations that go on inside the heads of decision-makers