Transmission Expansion under Risk using Stochastic Programming

In this work, the problem of transmission expansion under risk from demand uncertainty and capacity of the lines is addressed. A deterministic model is expanded into a two-stage stochastic model with fixed recourse by means of considering the various foreseeable levels of demand as random. After this model is analyzed, a way of quantifying risk using the mean-variance Markowitz approach is proposed. The last model presented is such that randomness in the transmission capacity factor for each line is considered using a probabilistic constraint. The concepts of expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) are also studied