Emergent Vulnerability in Integrated Operations: A Proactive Simulation Study of Risk and Organizational Learning

The implementation of integrated operations (IO) for oil and gas recovery - a real-time linkage among platform-based facilities, on-shore control centers and suppliers - is anticipated to reduce operating costs by 30%, extend the lifetime of current production fields by five years or longer and maintain Norwegian continental shelf production for 50-100 years. The changes in operating procedures require extensive training to ensure continued personal and environmental safety. Vulnerabilities may emerge during the rollout of updated techniques and integration of IO technology with existing work practices. We focus on user knowledge as key to successful change. A system dynamics simulation is presented that defines work process and knowledge transition. Interviews and historical records assisted in parameterizing the model. The simulation suggests that great care should be taken to facilitate and monitor the rate of knowledge maturation, even in the face of expensive implementation delays, to reduce the risk of catastrophic failure from endemic incidents