The CAPCO Group Probability Technique for Timing Capacity Additions and Allocation of Capacity Responsibility

This paper presents an extension in the use of probability techniques for analyzing a system's generation reserve position. A probabilistic capacity model is merged with a load model to develop the expected frequency distribution of daily capacity margins; an analysis of the computed capacity margins leads to the direct determination of a system's dependence upon and contribution to a total generating reserve situation as a member of a coordinating group. This technique provides the necessary data upon which judgment and decision can be based in comparing alternate capacity expansion plans, timing capacity additions, or allocating the capacity responsibility among members of a coordinating group.