The Markov Process as a Means of Determining Generating-Unit State Probabilities for Use in Spinning Reserve Applications

A method is presented showing the use of the Markov process to determine the state probabilities of generating units as functions of time, i.e., the probabilities that at some given time, normally less than 24 hours, a unit will be in either the operating state, a derated state, or the forced-outage state. These probabilities can be used in a loss-of-load probability (LOLP) program for determining spinning reserve requirements.