Prediction of natural gas consumption

Distributors of natural gas need to predict future consumption in order to purchase a sufficient supply on contract. Distributors that offer their customers equal payment plans need to predict the consumption of each customer, twelve months in advance. None equal payment plan customers are expected to pay for their consumption as billed monthly. However, as a cost-saving measure, their meters are usually only read bimonthly. Estimates based on previous consumption patterns are used for months without readings. Often, for customers whose meters are usually inaccessible, e.g. indoor meters, meters buried under snow, etc., only two or three irregular readings per year are taken. In such cases, the distributor relies on estimates most of the time. Existing methods of prediction and a proposed new method for a local region are discussed.<
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