Dynamic optimizations of Monte Carlo simulation to assess locational capacity, transmission, and market parameters

Risk indices of loss-of-load expectation and loss-of-energy expectation were traditionally used to determine generation adequacy. However, because responsibility of generation installation and transmission upgrades rests with different entities, both generation and transmission need to be examined to evaluate the resource adequacy of today's deregulated power systems. Further, it is important to delineate the contribution to curtailments arising from insufficient installed capacity and bottlenecks in transmission system. Hence, risk-based planning and market decision-makings have to address both generation and transmission jointly. This paper presents a procedure to combine dynamic optimization and Monte Carlo simulation to generate a vector space of solution, from which optimal solutions for different objectives can then be easily obtained. Determining locational capacity and transmission requirements serves the example of such an application. This paper closes with a discussion on some possible changes to risk criteria.