Operator decision modeling for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance type missions

This paper presents a decision making simulation and model for a simplified intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) type mission. The simulation presented operators with a binary decision choice for 25 possible scenarios. Data was collected experimentally with a total of 600 sample points, and then analyzed in order to develop an analytically tractable model of operator choice. The distribution of operator decisions was modeled with a binomial distribution as a function of environmental variables. An optimal decision making policy was also prescribed for all scenarios and compared to the operator data. Results showed good agreement between data and the optimal decision making policy in most scenarios, indicating good operator decision making. For scenarios with disagreement, the model gives more detail as to the environmental variables that caused the most confusion among operators.