Reliability performance index probability distribution analysis of bulk electricity systems

System reliability performance is usually based on average customer interruption indices. The average values are valuable information, but provide only a single customer risk dimension without the underlying probability distributions. The average annual indices give no insight on how reliability may vary from year to year as a result of the random behavior of a bulk electric system. Reliability index probability distributions, therefore, provide additional valuable information and a more complete understanding of composite power system behavior. A significant advantage when utilizing sequential Monte Carlo simulation in bulk electric system reliability analysis is the ability to provide reliability index probability distributions in addition to the expected values of their indices. This paper illustrates the development of probability distributions for bulk electric system reliability performance indices using sequential simulation. The results obtained using the developed software show that the system performance index probability distributions have unique characteristics that are basically dependent on the system topology, operating philosophy and conditions. System conditions such as the peak load level and system reinforcement options have significant impacts on the performance index probability distribution characteristics. The basic concepts and their application in composite power system reliability evaluation are illustrated by application to a small practical test system