Will Moore's Law Be Sufficient?

It seems well understood that supercomputer simulation is an enabler for scientific discoveries, weapons, and other activities of value to society. It also seems widely believed that Moore’s Law will make progressively more powerful supercomputers over time and thus enable more of these contributions. This paper seeks to add detail to these arguments, revealing them to be generally correct but not a smooth and effortless progression. This paper will review some key problems that can be solved with supercomputer simulation, showing that more powerful supercomputers will be useful up to a very high yet finite limit of around 1021 FLOPS (1 Zettaflops . The review will also show the basic nature of these extreme problems. This paper will review work by others showing that the theoretical maximum supercomputer power is very high indeed, but will explain how a straightforward extrapolation of Moore’s Law will lead to technological maturity in a few decades. The power of a supercomputer at the maturity of Moore’s Law will be very high by today’s standards at 1016-1019 FLOPS (100 Petaflops to 10 Exaflops, depending on architecture , but distinctly below the level required for the most ambitious applications. Having established that Moore’s Law will not be that last word in supercomputing, this paper will explore the nearer term issue of what a supercomputer will look like at maturity of Moore’s Law. Our approach will quantify the maximum performance as permitted by the laws of physics for extension of current technology and then find a design that approaches this limit closely. We study a "multi-architecture" for supercomputers that combines a microprocessor with other "advanced" concepts and find it can reach the limits as well. This approach should be quite viable in the future because the microprocessor would provide compatibility with existing codes and programming styles while the "advanced" features would provide a boost to the limits of performance.