A fuzzy Markov model including optimization techniques to reduce uncertainty

This paper presents a method for the reliability evaluation of electric network components considering fuzzy quantities to include uncertainty in the data. A model is used based in Markov homogeneous processes of discrete state space and continuous parameter to take into account external influences such as weather conditions. This model provides expressions that are not suitable for fuzzy numbers since it would result in much more uncertainty than necessary. To avoid this problem, an optimization technique is used to reduce uncertainty in reliability results.