Road to cost-effective crystalline silicon photovoltaics

The cost of photovoltaics (PV) is expected to decrease by a factor of two to four within the next two decades, making PV a very attractive and cost-effective solution to the problems of fossil fuel depletion and growing energy demand. Crystalline Si has been the champion of the PV industry, providing an average growth of greater than 30%/yr in the last six years, in spite of stiff competition from other materials and technologies. Si has the uncanny ability to reinvent itself when challenged. This paper describes how Si is responding to the challenge of cost- effective PV via thinner and lower-cost substrates, low-cost technology development, higher manufacturable cell efficiencies, and proven reliability and scalability. Cost and technologies roadmaps are developed that show 17-18% efficient cells on 150-200-/spl mu/m thick wafers can reduce the manufacturing cost below $1/W for a 100-500 MW production facility.