Bayesian estimation of the variability of reliability measures

Bayesian population variability analysis, also known as the first stage in two-stage Bayesian updating, is an estimation procedure for the assessment of the variability of reliability measures among a group of subpopulations of similar systems. The estimated variability distributions are used as prior distributions in system-specific Bayesian updates. In this paper, we briefly outline the estimation procedure itself as well as its link with conventional Bayesian updating procedures, describe the various results generated by the procedures and their behavior under various data conditions, and provide some numerical examples.