Broad-Band Communications--Economic and Social Implications

Today's discussion of future broad-band communication focuses mainly on technological aspects. This paper emphasizes the complementary aspect, namely, the potential utilization of glass-fiber networks in a comprehensive manner. The paper is based on the results of an extensive study concerning the demand for switched broad-band communication under technological and economic boundary conditions, which has been carried out during the last two-and-a-half years. The prospects of video communication over a glass-fiber network are considered in connection with document and audio communication. The basic thesis of our study is that video communication is especially useful if it helps to approximate telecommunication to direct personal communication, which very often comprises the demonstration of items or documents. Three fields of future video communication are investigated: 1) business use, 2) use by private households, and 3) educational use. Two scenarios are described quantitatively to demonstrate the economic implications of a slower or swifter introduction of the new telecommunication infrastructure. Under certain assumptions, given in the paper, it is shown that glass-fiber networks are economically feasible provided the acceptance in business utilization is sufficiently high.