STDMamba: Spatio-Temporal Decomposition Mamba for Long-Term Fine-Grained SST Prediction

Long-term prediction of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a pervasive issue in ocean science, particularly for understanding climate changes and improving marine disaster risk assessment. However, existing approaches typically focus either on short-term or long-term coarse-grained prediction, due to their limited ability to overcome noise interference and model complex spatio-temporal dependencies in long SST sequences. To overcome these limitations, we proposed a novel spatio-temporal decomposition Mamba model, termed STDMamba, for long-term fine-grained SST prediction. First, we introduce a Gaussian-weighted series decomposition module with smoothing mechanisms to decompose SST sequences into trend and fluctuation components, thereby mitigating noise interference. Then, we design a dual spatio-temporal representation learning module which utilizes Mamba2 to effectively capture the long-term spatio-temporal dependencies in the fluctuation component, and employs a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to learn the spatio-temporal feature representation of the trend component. Finally, the dual representations are fused and passed through a prediction layer to generate the long-term fine-grained SST prediction results. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that STDMamba significantly outperforms state-of-the-art prediction models. The code of STDMamba is available at https://github.com/ADMIS-TONGJI/STDMamba.