A Method for Assessing the Adequacy of Power Grids Containing a High Percentage of New Energy Based on Time Series Production Simulation

In order to cope with the challenge of assessing the reliable power supply capacity of power systems under high percentage of new energy access, this paper proposes a method for assessing the adequacy of power grids containing high percentage of new energy based on time series production simulation. First, an adequacy evaluation index system is established to address the change in the overall level of power system adequacy after a high proportion of new energy power generation is integrated into the grid, and the difficulty of identifying the weak links of diversified adequacy in traditional adequacy assessment. Then, an adequacy assessment model is constructed based on the time-series production simulation method combined with Monte Carlo sampling method to calculate the adequacy index. Finally, the AHP-entropy weighting method is used to set the comprehensive weights of each index, and the TOPSIS method is combined to determine the comprehensive score of the indexes, so as to realize the quantitative analysis of the grid adequacy. The algorithm is based on the data of a local power grid, and the CPLEX solver is invoked to solve the model using MATLAB software. The results show that the proposed method can assess the overall adequacy level of the power system under the intervention of a high percentage of new energy sources, which verifies the accuracy and practicality of the proposed model.