Analysing the Policy Shift Regarding FDI Regims in Uzbekistan: A Machine Learning Lense Via Implementing Smooth Transition Regression Model

This study examines the regime-dependent effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on GDP growth in Uzbekistan using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model integrated with machine learning techniques. The analysis identifies critical thresholds where FDI impacts growth differently under varying economic conditions, highlighting non-linear dynamics. By leveraging robust econometric and ML approaches, the study uncovers the diminishing returns of FDI at higher levels and the importance of complementary macroeconomic factors such as inflation, exchange rates, and capital formation. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers to optimize FDI policies for sustainable economic growth.