A Preventive Maintenance Strategy for Aviation Cables Based on Lifetime Prediction Under Variable Operating Conditions

Given the critical role of aviation cables in aircraft electrical systems, accurately predicting their lifetime and devising effective preventive maintenance strategies are essential for ensuring flight safety and reducing maintenance costs. This article proposes a preventive maintenance strategy for aviation cables based on lifetime prediction under variable operating conditions. First, an electromagnetic–thermal field coupling simulation is conducted to establish a mapping relationship between conductor temperature, current, and ambient temperature. This relationship is then utilized to construct an analytical model of conductor temperature using multiple linear regression. By integrating the Arrhenius equation with this model, a lifetime model based on conductor current and ambient temperature is formulated. Subsequently, considering the uncertainty in the failure time, a Weibull distribution-based reliability model is further established to achieve lifetime prediction under variable operating conditions. Finally, the preventive maintenance strategy model is developed based on the established reliability model. The red-billed blue magpie optimizer (RBMO) is utilized to determine the optimal solution for the preventive maintenance threshold and the lifetime prediction cycle. Research demonstrates that optimizing the preventive maintenance strategy can significantly reduce the average cost rate (ACR), thereby minimizing the expected maintenance costs per unit of time.