Resilience Measurement for Global Industrial System Based on Causal Emergence

This paper proposes a bottom-up framework for measuring the resilience of the global industrial system from the macro-national level and the micro-sectoral level, with interdisciplinary theories. The study shows that the industrial system resilience with scale-free characteristics is more subject to the upstream and downstream positions and the types of shocks, while that in the small-world network is between the random and scale-free networks. When demand shocks hit the global industrial system at the macro-regional level and supply shocks at the micro-sector level, an increase in the length of the resistance phase significantly dampens the resilience of the industrial system. Economic agents increasing the number of inward links in the global industrial network can effectively resist the damaging effects of demand shocks on system resilience, while appropriately reducing the number of outward links can effectively resist the damaging effects of supply shocks on system resilience.