Estimating the Typical Curve of Photovoltaic Generation Based on a Single Reference Station

The accurate estimation of distribution-level photovoltaic (PV) typical curves is essential for the participation of generalized loads in power grid dispatching and control. However, the limited availability of online measurements poses significant challenges for this estimation. Conventional approaches relying on solely historical data fail to reflect short-term power characteristics, resulting in insufficient accuracy of typical curves during peak periods. This paper proposes a practical distribution-level PV typical curve estimation method by selecting a single PV unit with online measurements as a reference station. Then, the PV typical curve, which is the approximate estimate of the total PV active power in the distribution area, can be accurately estimated through an approximate proportional relationship between reference station and regional PV power curves. The proposed method requires no environmental data, making it highly implementable. Simulation results verify that the estimated PV typical curve precisely captures the actual online PV power in a distribution area. The curve demonstrates exceptional accuracy in both peak and valley periods, providing essential operational references for power grid dispatching and control.