Spatial Accessibility in Transition: Evaluating Urban Growth and Service Distribution in Westhoek, Belgium

Accessibility to essential services in rural areas is critical for quality of life but is often constrained by population dispersion, infrastructural limitations, low availability and demographic shifts. This study examines the interplay between urban development, demographic change, and accessibility to amenities in the rural Westhoek region of Belgium between 2015 and 2019. Using high-resolution geospatial and population data, we analyze changes in built-up areas, population distribution, and accessibility to essential services. The findings reveal that while urbanization and population density correlate with accessibility, improvements of walkability often lag behind development. Regression models highlight a strong relationship between accessibility and degree of urbanization. However, change analyses show weak correlations, indicating that urban growth does not consistently lead to immediate accessibility gains. This lag underscores the need for synchronized planning of rural expansion and service development to ensure equitable access for all rural residents.