Analysis of the Multilayer Atmospheric Temperature Rise of Yushu and Subsequent Earthquakes in Qinghai in 2010

Based on temporal variations in the celestial tidal force (CTF) at the hypocenter of the Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake, we analyzed the relationship between the earthquake and the phase change in the CTF. Then, using atmospheric temperature data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP-FNL) dataset, we introduced a 3-D spatial distribution method to stratify atmospheric thermodynamic anomalies. We further explored the relationship between the CTF, atmospheric temperature, and seismic activity, and the results show that the phase change of the continuous enhancement of atmospheric temperature is temporally quasi-synchronous with the continuous change in the CTF from peak to trough; this method successfully captures the synchronous migration of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with two adjacent earthquakes. As the Yushu earthquake approached, warming became concentrated, transitioning from a scattered distribution to the Ganzi-Yushu seismogenic fracture zone. After the earthquake, the warming distribution underwent significant bifurcation and offset steering, and a new significant earthquake occurred in Nerong in the new warming region formed along the Zadoi-Shanglaxiu seismogenic fault zone. The vertical multilayer structures of the thermal anomaly show that the spatial expansion pattern, intensity, and extent of atmospheric warming with increasing altitude are consistent with the atmospheric thermodynamic properties of ground-to-atmosphere heating, leading to near-surface atmospheric warming, lifting, diffusion, and extinction, showing the primary warming of the subsurface heat source. In general, the CTF changes the tectonic environment, induces earthquakes, and changes the atmospheric temperature, and the temperature anomaly reflects that the tectonic stress in the seismogenic zones has entered a critical state. Therefore the atmospheric warming data extracted using the tidal force potential analysis (TFFA) can be used to monitor the stress state and indicate seismogenic regions for the earthquake induced by the CTF. The results of the synergistic time-space–intensity evolution of atmospheric warming due to seismic activity can also provide a new parameter that can complement studies of regional atmospheric changes due to the effects of tectonic activity.