Reliability Evaluation for Power Systems with High-Proportion Renewable Energy Sources Considering Dispatch Decisions

Operational reliability evaluation quantifies a power system’s ability to maintain supply quality and quantity under dynamic conditions, including time-varying dispatch decisions and uncertainties from renewable energy sources (RES) and load. However, existing methods often lack operational considerations and computational efficiency for real-time applications. To address these issues, this paper proposes a real-time reliability evaluation method. First, risk models for components are established by integrating time-varying dispatch decisions. Next, a maximum load supplied capacity (MLSC) model is proposed to calculate reliability indices, incorporating unit generation and the state of charge (SOC) of energy storage. Finally, fully analytical functions for reliability indices are developed using the stochastic response surface method (SRSM) to enable real-time index updates without repeated calculations. Case studies demonstrate the method’s accuracy and its ability to provide real-time risk guidance for power systems.